Friday, July 22, 2005

Here's hoping!: 0.04166666666

You gotta love those odds for getting Sidney Crosby in tomorrow's Lottery Draft.

Tomorrow I'm coming to work early so I can watch TSN's coverage like a dork in our Corporate Boardroom. I don't even mind having him go to the New York Rangers or Chicago, just anyone but Nashville or Phoenix. But I'm placing my roulette money on one of the teams with 2 balls, let's say Minnesota. Ten teams with 2 balls have a 42% chance of getting the first pick, 16 teams with one ball have 33% while the other four with 3 balls have a 25% per cent shot at Crosby.

OF course, it could all be a fix.

Any predictions?


Chris! said...

I agree with your logic, and mathematically I'd go with Minnesota or Florida--but you know that Colorado or Detroit are going to win. Not because of a fix, but because God wants us to be sad.

Anyhow, I'll eat my own dink if it's Edmonton.

collin said...

I'm going with fix is in and Chicago. I'm going with my gut here, not logic or rationale or anything really.
If you look at the non-ridiculous traditional U.S. hockey markets, they are poised to do quite well -- Boston probably best so -- but Chicago has that heartland USA feel. You'll remember that the Blackhawks almost got Eric Lindross in that crazy double trade day scnadal between the 'Diques, Philly and the Hawks. Though they played for the Cup in 92, I can't think off a single Hall of Famer who's played there in the last 30 years. Yes, yes, Dennis Savard and Stan Mikata, but I still think it's still telling. As the fortunes of the Chicago Blackhawks go, so do the NHL's.


PS - I'm with you, Randy.

collin said...

Actually your math is incorrect. Sniping here, but it's 0.4166ect. You misplaced the decimal point.
Go Nashville.

mike w said...


Thank the lord he didn't go to the ... (I still choke up saying their name) Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, who for some reason we have to watch even more of with the new interleague-esque schedule.

Except for Edmonton's truly shitty 25th pick (they got 2 balls drawn within 6 selections -- how unlucky is that?), the draft kind of went along smoothly. Canadian teams could have done better, but meh.

Chris! said...

Ah, we just would have wasted a higher pick on someone we thought was a scoring winger but actually turned out to be a face drawn on a pie plate and stapled to a broomstick wearing a Ilves Tampere jersey. Whoops! Quick, draft another East-Coast calibre goaltender! We always need more of those!

Anonymous said...

>Sniping here, but it's 0.4166ect.

You sure about that? 2 divided by 48 lottery balls is 0.0416...

collin said...

We're both wrong, you have to multiply by 100, sucker.

Without that, the odds of the entire two-ball team pool of winning are less than half of one-percent. Meaning that the one-ball teams would be somewhat less percentage, etc. By logical extension there'd be a 98 per cent chance that no ball would appear and Sidney Crosby would wander the universe for eternity -- trapped in math and unable to die. All in all, Nashville is a better fate.

Back in the tangible universe, I took the quoted number of 41.6 per cent for the probability of the first ball out being from a two-ball team then divided by ten.


Anonymous said...

0.0416... IS 4.16%

A number such as "45%" ("45 percent" or "45 per cent") is shorthand for the fraction 45/100 or 0.45.