Thursday, August 2, 2007

3 draft picks and millions later...

It's official: Dustin Penner is an Oiler.

PM EDIT: Because I can't think about anything else at the moment, the Oilers probable forward and PP lines, organized by assumed playing time, with one Dustin Penner inserted. Titillated? Appalled? Did I put the young folks in the right order?

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Torres-Stoll-Pisani
Moreau-Pouliot-Nilsson (?)
Sanderson-Reasoner-Thoresen (?)
Jacques, Brodziak (?)

PP1
Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Pitkanen-Souray

PP2
Torres-Pouliot (?)-Nilsson(?)
Stoll (?)-Tarnstrom

105 comments:

Chris! said...

How many posts have appeared on this site with the headline "Sigh"?

Too damn many.

mike w said...

Uh-oh. Come to think of it, you're right. I'll change it...

PPP said...

you should compile the sigh posts into a book about being an Oilers fan post-SCF.

Like Dante's Inferno but about hockey.

Loxy said...

Sadness.

Tyler said...

May God have mercy on us all.

Loxy said...

How come the fanboards are so happy about this?

LittleFury said...

Boo-urns!

depressedincoilerville said...

Because the fans are m0rans.

Seriously, it pains me to think of all the stupid Oiler fans in this city. The readership of CIL, BoA and LT pretty much comprise the entire segment of the intelligent sports fan base.

Steve said...

Well, there's a small (5%?) chance that Anaheim somehow chokes this season, and the Oilers' first rounder (that used to be Anaheim's) winds up being higher than the Ducks' (that used to be Edmonton's). Who's laughing then, huh? Huh?

Aw, fuck.

Rod said...

These are opinions people, not math problems. There is no right and wrong. Unless of course for those with a crystal ball.

I like the move. Here's a big player with clear upside and good hands, so this should be a good day in Oilerland. Unless of course you're worried about the money side. Course if the Oilers didn't spend that money, we'd be all over them for not spending.

Sure, a first rounder next year would have "clear upside" as well, but not necessarily NHL-ready.

Penner's age and potential are a great fit for Hemsky. As Hemmer gets better, Penner will be getting better. Same goes for Pitkanen, and Garon. And Smid, Stoll, and company. The moves may not pay off this season, but I really like where the team is headed.

Meanwhile, Burke is refusing to speak to the media until after KLowe does. Guess he doesn't want to be called childish...

McLea said...

Poor Oilers fans, you sure are a miserable, self-loathing bunch aren't you?

Christ, you just signed a good young player that is sure to make the upcoming season far less miserable than it was going to be.

Would you really be happy suffering through a season where you're primary goal was to finish last so that you could land the top pick in next year's draft? A whole year of fan tanking! Do you really think that would be worth it? I mean with Souray and Penner you at least have a puncher's chance of making the playoffs.

Honestly guys, this isn't that bad. This isn't some colossal mistake that will hang around your neck for the next five years. It's $4M to a legit power forward that has a fairly good chance of earning his compensation. Things could be worse.

Doogie said...

It's $4M to a legit power forward

Is it? I didn't know one good season made someone a legit power forward, but I guess with the market these days, anything's possible.

the sieve said...

Is it worth mentioning that the Devils signed Zach Parise to a four-year, $3mil-and-change-per deal today? And that Parise had 62 points last year?

Pleasure Motors said...

Mclea, don't take this the wrong way, but the fact that you're the one preaching tolerance and patience at this point makes me even more depressed than I was before.

Chris! said...

Forgive us for being pessimistic around these parts, McLea. Things ain't been quite right lately.

Anyhow, Penner is far from legit. While he had a good season last year and could project nicely, bottom line is that he's an unknown quantity. And we just committed 10% of our cap and gave up our top three draft picks for a guy who quite reasonably could end up with fewer points than Raffi Torres.

I don't think there's anyone here who's not glad to have Penner on the team. It's the circumstances people have a problem with. This is mortgaging the future for mediocrity today.

Jes GÅ‘lbez said...

As a Canucks fan, I enjoy this signing. Great job in pissing away a lot of assets for a solid 2nd-line winger. I like Penner, but we all know he's not worth the money AND draft picks.

McLea said...

Well I guess we'll find out won't we? But like they say, beggars can't be choosers, and whether you like it or not, the circumstances dictate that these are the sort of moves the Oilers will have to make nowadays. Either they throw $4M at guys like Penner, or they sit on their hands and collect lottery tickets for future draft.

If I was an Oiler fan, I would be glad that the Oilers are gambling on guys who at least have a NHL track record, over rolling the dice on some 16 year who might give you a contribution in 2010.

I think risk/reward favours making moves like this, especially when you have cap space to work with. So for this coming year, it's either give $4M to Penner or have it paid out as a year end dividend to EIG shareholders. In future years I think we'll find (given the inflationary environment that we are in) that $4M is far less of burden than it is today. Penner's compensation as a % of cap space should decrease in every year of his contract, so again it's not like Lowe is taking a huge risk here. This isn't a make or break move. It's a relatively small gamble that may or may not payoff. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Vic Ferrari said...

Loxy:

I would imagine that its just the same group of fans that like the same types of moves. Different people like different kinds of players.

I'm guessing that it's the same bunch that have been pessimistic about the Oilers every other July, but now they're pumped. And vice versa.

I mean if you thought that Gretzky and Barnet were building a helluva a team in the summer of '05 ... then you would also have been in the majority on Oiler fan boards, and you are probably as happy as a pig in shit today.

Penner didn't look as good as Getzlaf and Perry to me, not even close (and I despise Corey Perry as a person, for no clear reason).

But those 29 goals are big and shiny, that stat is grabbing the imagination of a lot of folks I suspect. I hope that this works out for the Oilers, at this cash and term it had better.

Steve said...

To be clear, I'd like this move were it not for the draft picks. There's a reasonable (less than fifty percent, but still more than ten percent) chance that Penner will earn his pay next year. I think there's an excellent chance that he'll earn his pay four years hence, at that will be the time that (if all goes according to "plan") that the Oilers are contenders.

But that's a lot of draft picks, and people who know more than I do about these things are drooling over how great next year's draft is. Looking at it another way, would we be happy if the Ducks had signed him to this contract and then we'd traded the three picks for him? I'm not sure.

I don't think it's maybe quite as bad a move as it's being made out to be. It really depends on when the Oilers are setting themselves up to be contenders: right now it looks like about 2009, in which case those 2008 picks probably wouldn't have done us much good anyway.

But still. Blech.

Andy Grabia said...

How come the fanboards are so happy about this?

They are the same ones who bought up all those seasons tickets. So nuff said.

I can't believe Chris! apologized to Mclea. Give me a break. That deserves a "sigh" post all on it's own.

MetroGnome said...

LOVE that 2nd PP unit.

Loxy said...

Vic:

Why is it that Perry bothers me as well?? I wonder if it's his skeez factor.



I think Jes said it best: I like Penner, but we all know he's not worth the money AND draft picks.

Rod said...

@the sieve:

At this point, it looks like an over-pay for Penner compared to Parise. How else was Lowe supposed to get someone here?

Through the term of the deal, Penner may well look like a bargain. After all, this isn't a UFA deal for a player on the down slide of their career. How many players can you name in the NHL with the same tool set as Penner?

The value on Penner himself is only part of the reason for this deal though. Along with the Souray signing, the Penner signing sends a shot through the league and to fans. How can players and agents continue to view the Oilers as a team that won't spend? From the fan perspective, we've seen draft picks headed this way far too frequently. The FCP and Peca acquisitions signalled a different era...until FCP bolted, and the perception of the team went into free fall. Reversing that free fall was an important part of the moves Lowe made this summer (intentional or not... ;-).

I like the fact Penner is an Oiler. I'm totally pumped about the addition of Pitkanen. Garon was also a great pickup. Add in Souray and Penner to a healthy Oiler lineup, and there's at least some reason for optimism for the coming season. The following season looks even better. Of course I'm assuming Pitkanen and Stoll will be signed...judging by the Penner deal, money shouldn't be a problem (and that too is reason for optimism).

Rod said...

Definite skeez factor with Perry. Loxy nailed it.

gary b said...

there's no need for all this brow gnashing & teeth furrowing - i think we'll have acquired another 1st round draft pick by the time the 2008 draft rolls around anyway. Dare i say it, but if this year's Oiler team is the colossal crash-and-burn many are predicting, then come trade deadline day, it'll be bye-bye #35. and i'd say we can get a 1st rounder for such an asset (that's what we paid to get him, that plus a 3rd rounder).

choppystride said...

Vic: Penner didn't look as good as Getzlaf and Perry to me, not even close

I totally agree.

I recall some ANA games that I watched earlier in the season. Comparing the performaces of Getzlaf & Perry back then to what they were doing at the end of the year....it's just night and day. Those kids progressed a whole bunch.

I can't say the same for Penner.

I know there's currently a contingent of people on HF who are actually claiming that Perry is the leecher of the line..... This just bags the question: did they even watch the playoffs? If so, WTF were they watching? I thought that Penner simply looked lost out there at times. The poor dude just couldn't keep up with the 2 kids, not just speedwise but also in terms of skill and hockey sense. Getzlaf & Perry took it to the next level and left Penner in the dust. He was a dead weight, not just of that line but of the entire Ducks forward group who got any regular playing time in the playoffs. I don't think it's any coincidence that whenever Carlyle replaced him with a rested Brad May, that line instantly looked like world beaters.

Personally, it wouldn't surprise me that Penner is already pretty close to a plateau in his development. I just don't see enough in his arsenal to suggest that he's the next great power forward.

Tyler said...

Where in the fuck is Lowe doing this press conference from? So far I've heard what sounds like a boat engine starting and submarine sonar in the background.

Baroque said...

Where in the fuck is Lowe doing this press conference from? So far I've heard what sounds like a boat engine starting and submarine sonar in the background.

Shhh! You'll blow his cover. He's in an undisclosed location.

Rod said...

Here's a snippet of a transcript from a Burke conference call this past April. Thought it might be interesting to contrast with the rant he's sure to deliver in the up-coming press conference:

Q. Dustin Penner, you said you couldn’t take any credit for a guy like that. He seems to be emblematic about what your team is about. He likes to hit. He can score the goals. He’s got some size to him. How satisfying is it to see a guy like this come into his own under your watch?
BRIAN BURKE: On those kids, when I say I can’t take any credit for them, I mean that. On the other hand, I do think Randy Carlyle and Kevin Dineen deserve some credit for their development. They spent time in Portland in the American League last year with Kevin Dineen.
I think Randy was very patient with them last year and put them in situations where they had a chance to be successful, getting the line matchups they wanted. Then the players deserve a lot of credit for how hard they’ve worked.
Dustin is a very rare specimen. To have a man that big with those hands and those feet is very unusual. He’s 6’4”, 245. I said this before, he has a part-time job as a wall. He’s a big man. When you get a guy that size with feet like that and hands like that, it’s a rare guy. I had Todd Bertuzzi as a player. I think Dustin has that same capability.

Q. Seems like his road to the NHL has been a little tougher than Bertuzzi’s was. Does that translate into the way he plays the game as well?
BRIAN BURKE: I think, fortunately, our game allows guys to find different paths to the NHL. Dustin’s was a little—he kind of meandered there rather than taking a direct route, more like Todd Bertuzzi was a high pick out of the OHL.
Dustin had to go play high school hockey in North Dakota, then tagged along, got a year in at the University of Maine. Dave McNabb spotted him, turned him pro. He’s worked hard to turn himself into a hockey player. There’s plenty of big guys who can’t play at this level. We’re fortunate that he’s got the skill set to play at this level, plus he’s big enough he can bang and make things happen in front of the net.

Doogie said...

I really don't care about the picks, the more I think about it. This is not going to be a bad team next year. It won't be a very good team next year, but we're not exactly swimming with Phoenix and Columbus, which is important. It means we're in that thick band between "shit" (lottery) and "not shit" (playoffs). We're not making the playoffs in this division, not unless at least two teams suffer catastrophic injuries/meltdowns, which is highly improbable (unless you give some fourth-liner $100K on the side to take a hack at Kiprusoff's knee or Luongo's wrist), but I think it's a much better offensive team than last year (hard not to be), I'm actually optimistic about Souray (stick him behind the Stoll line, and that +/- calms right the fuck down; the PP results won't be duplicated but they'll still be alright, because Simpson will insist on bombing away even though the forward setup, more than ever before, screams for a Hemmer-oriented down-low attack), and could very well see this team around 10th place, which is not good, but not terrible, either, and at that point, it is quite possible to pick a dud.

It's the price. My God, the price. Clever move by Burke, giving Lou time to seal the deal on Parise (hey Kevin, the guy with 17 more points was over there --->, and just got signed for over $1M less). Look at Horton's deal. Look at Roy's deal. Look at Raffi's deal. Now, look at Penner's deal. What the fuck, Vish? What the bleeding fuck? And Matheson says Penner would've taken $2M from the Ducks? Aye yi fucking yi. Kid better average 30 goals over this contract, or...or...

/sigh

gary b said...

Vic & choppystride:

just to play devil's advocate - why can't Penner project into a Rich Nash-type player?

compare the two - almost the same age (Penner is 24, Nash is 23). almost the same size (Penner's a bit heavier). both wingers. both known for their ability to physically dominate down low. both have great hands for their size. and both have work to do in terms of their skating and defensive play. In NHL circles, Nash is considered a 'franchise winger', yet has never scored more than 57 points in the season.

now i'm not saying that Penner is the next Rick Nash, but the certainly are a lot of comparables. Penner's going to get a chance to play and learn, likely playing more minutes than he would in Anaheim this year. He's likely going to spend a fair bit of his time on the ice with talented players (Hemsky, etc.). He'll get oodles of PP time. i for one can't wait to see what the kid can do. If he can match Rick Nash's point totals, and improve his overall game, than this is a good deal for the Oilers.

Black Dog said...

Agreed on Perry - guy is a rat. I remember in the '06 run Lupul running his mouth off before the series started about how the Ducks were just going to pound Pronger into submission. I saw a clip from the Wings series this playoff - Perry was mic'd and he was going on and on to Hasek and Datysuk about how they were dead men.
Guy is a good player but he's a rat and a pussy.

As for the move, well, I like it a lot better then the Souray move but I'm not sold on the kid. Yet. Some people are already burying him but he was great in the playoffs the year before iirc. Who's to say why he slid this past year - injury, loss of confidence?

He's an interesting player. He's overcome quite a bit and that says something. 29 goals in his first full season. Mostly at ES.

I don't know. I really don't. McLea is right - its a gamble. Same as Souray. If these two guys help pull the team into even 9th or 10th in the west it probably is easier to take. If Penner scores 30 to 35 each of the next four years and is at least reasonable in terms of his play without the puck then its even better.

If he is Lupul II and the team is a disaster then this summer will match last summer's.

Guess we'll know next spring.

Kirsten said...

All I have to say is fuck.

mc79hockey said...

"Given Kevin's recent performance, I expect they'll be excellent picks."

He's probably right, but what an immense dick.

Rod said...

Yep, Burke's a prick. No question.

On top of that, what a whiner. Burke's OK with RFA offers "that are commensurate with the player's abilities." What's the point of making an offer sheet like that? The "prior" team would match without question. In Burke's world, RFA offers are OK...because they'd never be made.

Earl Sleek said...

On top of that, what a whiner.

Yeah, must be really nice to have a non-whining GM like Kevin Lowe.

Black Dog said...

Ok, so to play devil's advocate. Actually seeing as I've panned this pretty much since it began it appears that I am playing with myself. This is an enjoyable, par for the course moment for me indeed.

The big question is what about Penner? Is he Lupul II?

He scored almost 30 goals in his first NHL season and that included pretty low PP time, am I right? That's damn good by any measure.

While his play without the puck was spotty lets remember (and we saw a lot of this last season) that this comes with young players. Its part and parcel. To say that he cannot get better in this area is to assume that he cannot be tought to play without the puck. Maybe he cannot. But its not like he's Souray, right?

He faded in the playoffs and a lot of people are really getting on this. Well, remember the playoffs the year before. The guy had games where he was nearly unstoppable. So he had a poor playoff. Yep. But he may have lost confidence. He may have been hurt. He may have just run out of gas after playing over 100 games in the NHL in his rookie year.

As for the idea that the guy is not going to get better, I'm not sure why that would be the case. When did Horcoff hit his stride? He was older then Penner, no? I would think that a guy with one season under his belt in the NHL might improve. Just saying.

All we can do is wait and see. If its a lottery pick then it could be a disaster. But if he scores thirty a year for the next four years and he is a reasonable player without the puck and the pick turns out to be a 14 or a 16, then this is a good move.

Return to the regular scheduled bitch. I've been a big part of it for a while now but I wonder if burying this guy might be a little premature.

Rod said...

At least Lowe doesn't make completely brain dead comments like the one I pointed out. Burke has no problem with offer sheets...as long as they're cheap. Completely nuts.

It doesn't stop there though...

Burke took credit for recognizing weeks ago that they'd be targets for RFA offer sheets (after signing Bert). Then why didn't the Ducks follow up by trying to sign him?

Burke made his own mess, and is blaming Niedermayer and Selanne for it. He blames Lowe for "inflating" salaries when they're capped. It's a redistribution Burkie, not inflationary. Get it straight.

OK, over to you Earl. Grab one sentence out of my post while ignoring the point completely...

McLea said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rod said...

>>"...burying this guy might be a little premature."<<
Absolutely. Penner has the unfortunate circumstance of coming here from the same Duck soup. Give the guy some time. He's not Lupul. For one, when did anyone describe Lupul as having a "part-time job as a wall"?

Earl Sleek said...

OK, over to you Earl. Grab one sentence out of my post while ignoring the point completely...

Hey, it's not all baloney, but still, at least I'm picking a sentence. Where'd you get these quotes below? Have a vivid dream last night?

Burke made his own mess, and is blaming Niedermayer and Selanne for it. He blames Lowe for "inflating" salaries when they're capped.

Baroque said...

Do you folks think that Penner will have a little less pressure on him than Lupul did, too?

He isn't the hometown boy coming in to fill some very large shoes by a trade--he accepted the offer, and wants to be in Edmonton, and although he is expensive he isn't directly replacing anyone by trade. That might work to his advantage, maybe?

Black Dog said...

Hmm Earl - he definitely went off on Lowe about inflating salaries. I don't know about the Niedermayer/Selanne reference but his press conference after the offer sheet definitely slammed Lowe for inflating salaries.

Earl Sleek said...

Well, I thought it was more about paying more than market value for an individual player, but I didn't read anything about overall salary inflation, which I think Rod was slamming him for.

Burke is a whiner, but I don't think he needs us putting words in his mouth.

deveel's advocate said...

Isn't it natural that with an increasing cap, salaries leapfrog each other?

Also, jesus christ, but this online oilogosphere group is getting to be quite the pissy little echo chamber.

mike w said...

Both GMs are huge whiners: Burke whenever his goon players cripple someone and get suspended; Lowe on all issues small-market (his vow to quit if he didn't get a salary cap seems funny now, doesn't it?).

But then again, I guess it's in the job description, really.

Anonymous said...

after 4X I gotta tell black dog to check out the word "THAN". It's great.
Twice in your first wha? post.
Once in the 2nd wha?.
and again in this thread.
Sorry, because I know noone likes an off topic grammar nitpicker, but the editor in me got annoyed.
Also, "tought"? WTF.

Anonymous said...

When used correctly the word than is greater than the word then.

mike w said...

Once in the 2nd wha?.
and again in this thread.
the editor in me got annoyed.


And yet, in your own post you ignore things like punctuation.

:0 WHAAA?.

rstahl said...

I would imagine that its just the same group of fans that like the same types of moves. Different people like different kinds of players.

I'm guessing that it's the same bunch that have been pessimistic about the Oilers every other July, but now they're pumped. And vice versa.


Well, because somebody disagrees with you, they must be an idiot.

I'm going to second the deveel's advocates sentiment. There has been little debate in this section of the intarweb this summer; for the most part, when somebody presents an argument that the Oilers are not a steaming pile of shit, the argument is either ignored, or blanket statements dismissing the worthiness of the originator are issued.

Rod said...

Earl, Burkie definitely said all those things during today's conference call. I didn't make any of that up. Claims otherwise are unjustified, Mr. Sleek.

Burke claimed to have no problem with RFA offer sheets where the offer was commensurate with the players accomplishments. Hmmm, Burkie, that makes no sense. If the offer is completely reasonable based on accomplishments, the prior team would match. There would be no point making any RFA offers. Period. The offering team *has* to "overpay" by enough to make it difficult for the prior team to match. Otherwise, why bother? Burke's point made no sense...but you skipped right over that of course.

Burke admitted that with a cap in place, the Penner contract doesn't increase overall salaries. However, he kept using the "inflationary" term. One reporter, probably from BC, tried to point out that with a cap, it wasn't really inflationary. Burke "agreed", and then said he was only being "facetious." He maintained the offer is inflationary to young players. In the old CBA, maybe. Not in the current system. All the Penner offer does is take some money away from UFAs and give it to RFAs. It's not inflationary. It's a redistribution. Burke maintained otherwise.

Burke probably kept using "inflationary" so that a local reporter would stay fired up. This guy was comical. The reporter asked whether the commissioner should step in to block the deal. That in other professional sports, the commissioner has blocked deals that would adversely affect the longer stability of a league. Apparently the Oilers have jumped all the way from small market to evil empire. Ludicrous how the Penner offer sheet qualified for the doomsday vision of this particular reporter, but it was funny to listen to.

More than once Burke referred to the situation he "found himself in" re: winning a Cup, and within days*, finding out a couple future hall of famers were thinking about retirement--one of which was under contract, the other not. Burke later referred to the possible retirements again, as "the cards he was dealt." That Niedermayer thinking about retirement meant he should sign Schneider on July 1st. Then, in response to possibly losing Selanne, he signed Bertuzzi (for 4 million BTW) "for the great things he did for me in Vancouver". Apparently Bert's numbers the last three years are irrelevant...

(*Uh, Burkie, if you want to compare getting dealt a bad card just days after the Stanley Cup Final, I think KLowe has you trumped...)

Burke then crowed about recognizing his team would be a target for RFA offer sheets (after signing Bert). He claimed he could dig up the emails if the press wanted. Guess he's worried about covering his own ass or something. Problem is, if Burke was so smart at reading the target in the tea leaves, why didn't his organization prioritize the signing of their RFAs? Perhaps Burkie was waiting for a courtesy call from a rival GM...

"Playing the cards you're dealt" is hardly the line one uses when accepting responsibility for the cap crunch Burke created. Nobody forced him to sign Bertuzzi. The Ducks didn't really bother trying to sign Penner, even though they knew they were targets. The mess was Burke's own making.

Bottom line, I didn't make up any of that. My interpretation was based entirely on Burke's own words. Burke did a tremendous job of putting his foot into his mouth, all on his own.

Earl, you run a quality blog, but it might be an idea to avoid unfounded insinuations in the future. Then again, maybe you're taking logic lessons from Burkie...

Rod said...

rstahl said...
>>Well, because somebody disagrees with you, they must be an idiot.<<

Par for the course with Vic. His crystal ball is perfect, hence his opinions are always right. Everyone else...idiots.

>>I'm going to second the deveel's advocates sentiment. There has been little debate in this section of the intarweb this summer; for the most part, when somebody presents an argument that the Oilers are not a steaming pile of shit, the argument is either ignored, or blanket statements dismissing the worthiness of the originator are issued.<<

Well said.

Black Dog said...

Sorry anon from now on I'll have someone double check all my posts and comments. I'll try and do better next time - really I will.

Why don't we get together for a beer and you can point out to me everytime I use slang or use the word 'fuck' as an adjective instead of as a verb or noun?

Jesus, I didn't realize I was getting graded. I had better get my shit together.

Chris! said...

"when somebody presents an argument that the Oilers are not a steaming pile of shit, the argument is either ignored, or blanket statements dismissing the worthiness of the originator are issued."

Fans are nothing without the force of their convictions.

I don't think there's any conscious attempt to stifle debate here, folks. If arguments are ignored, it's usually because the reader deems them not worth addressing. And that's their choice, isn't it?

Present a compelling argument and watch the comments fly.

Loxy said...

There has been little debate in this section of the intarweb this summer; for the most part, when somebody presents an argument that the Oilers are not a steaming pile of shit, the argument is either ignored, or blanket statements dismissing the worthiness of the originator are issued.

First of all (and I love starting replies with first of all because it makes people sigh, knowing there is probably a second of all), there is a difference between blogs and message boards and other forms of discussion. The people who write on blogs have their opinion and could live without any intelligent discussion about it. And the people who write on blogs probably left/avoid message boards for some reason. Try to debate all you want, there's no moderator to stop people from dismissing you.

Second of all, I think if you ask anyone in the oilogosphere, they will say that Penner will make this team better on some level, but is he enough to take this from a non-playoff team to a contender? Are all the moves this summer enough?

Optimists say yes.

The rest of us, say no.

I'm not dismissing the worthiness of your argument, I'm just saying it's hard to debate when its a point of view situation. We all wear different coloured glasses.

Earl Sleek said...

Even with your restatements, Rod, I get a different sense of what Burke says vs. what Rod says Burke says.

Take it for what it will, but I sense when Burke says "inflationary" he is referring to an individual salary and not overall salaries. When Burke talks about "playing the cards you're dealt", that's a little different than blaming Selanne and Niedermayer.

Your longer response gives me a different reading than what I quoted. Sorry for my brash interpretations.

Then again, maybe you're taking logic lessons from Burkie...

Did he say that too?

rickibear said...

Rod:
Way to find the truth in this situation @ kulkas Korner. Burke thinks of Penner as a young Bertuzzi and Getzlaf as a young Messier. We Know the choice he made.

Thanks for showing Burke agrees with KLowes talent evaluation.

Black Dog said...

Well then. Than. Then.

Aw fuck.

Winters get me a beer, will ya!

Sorry.

Would you please get me a beer, Michael?

James L. said...

Who the frack is "noone", Kelsey Grammar Nazi?

rickibear said...

Earl: Read the link Rod provided in comment #29. It will help you evaluate all Burkes comments post offer.

Its sort of makes it all look like "Blah Blah Blah Bull S*** Bull S*** Bull S***."

Earl Sleek said...

rickibear: thanks, but I never said Burke wasn't a bullshitter--I expect pretty much every NHL GM to be at least on some level, and he's among the best.

But still, there's things he's said and things we think he's said. Rod's become much clearer on his complaints, so I think I'm done anyway.

Rod said...

Earl said...
>>Even with your restatements, Rod, I get a different sense of what Burke says vs. what Rod says Burke says.<<
- Uh, those weren't restatements...it was just a loooong way of justifying my remarks. My remarks didn't change.
- Did you hear the conference call, or not? Or is your interpretation based on what I wrote? In which case, your interpretation of what Burke said is based on what I said he said. Hole growing larger Earl...

Chris! said...

"Hole growing larger Earl..."

Also growing more tedious.

Vic Ferrari said...

"Par for the course with Vic. His crystal ball is perfect, hence his opinions are always right. Everyone else...idiots."

Did Burke really say that about me, Rod? That's WAY out of line if he did!

Vic Ferrari said...

Black Dog/Loxy:

Yeah, Perry is one of those guys that always just struck me as a complete greasebag. Pat's info about the mic'd comments are just reinforcing that. When I did watch the Ducks during the playoffs I kept an eye out for him, probably because I was hoping to see him fail, but the dink can play.

Carlyle had no interest in playing that trio against good players though. I thought MacDonalds line really stepped up and that Pahlsson had the playoffs of a lifetime, all things considered. Way more than Pisaniesque even. Good for him.

Earl Sleek said...

Hole growing larger Earl...

Fuck, Rod. Put on your winner's hat already.

At any rate, I don't think you close the door on this deal now, probably not for the full five years. I'm not necessarily sold it won't work out decently for the Oil, but I am pretty sold that there are better gambles that could have been made.

Penner's a passenger on a line, sure, but he's still a pretty valuable one. He's mobile enough for his size, and he's not the giveaway-hook machine that Lupul was. Then again, though, the Getzlaf-Perry assignment isn't necessarily a tough one--Fedoruk had similar numbers before his Boogaarding.

You guys are dead-on about Perry. I'd hate the fuck out of him if he were in another sweater, but I'm happier losing Penner than Perry.

Pahlsson had the playoffs of a lifetime, all things considered. Way more than Pisaniesque even. Good for him.

God, remember when he was just a cult hero with a fanbase of one?

Vic Ferrari said...

rstahl said...

Well, because somebody disagrees with you, they must be an idiot.

I'm going to second the deveel's advocates sentiment. There has been little debate in this section of the intarweb this summer; for the most part, when somebody presents an argument that the Oilers are not a steaming pile of shit, the argument is either ignored, or blanket statements dismissing the worthiness of the originator are issued.


The statement of mine that you quoted, I'm confident that it's true in the vast majority of cases. You can go to Oilfans or HF and take the top 100 posters by volume ... then check manually and see for yourself. I would guess that about 1/3rd of the fans there aren't loving this deal either.

Should I have ignored Loxy's question? If the truth is unpalatable should we bury it? Is unpalatable even a word? Will the Grammar Nazi attck me if it isn't?

I don't know the answers rstahl. :D

I know you replied on a thread at IOF a couple of days ago, and I think your last comment directed at me, about the defence this year ... I didn't respond to it. I didn't think it was stupid, I just didn't agree. So we could carry on disagreeing in increasingly louder voices ... where does that get us? Or one of us could make a more compelling argument on the issue of the Oilers defence. Looking up real facts ... icetime data, stats, quotes from coaches, etc. But that would take time, and clearly neither of us wanted to bother.

Simple as that rstahl, I hope you're not offended.

rickibear said...

Perry and Shrempf both products of the London Knights. I was scared about the character quality of Gagner until I heard him talk. Give him twice the character score. For surviving that ego maniac generating team, so far. Add Patrick Kane to the Ego list.

Vic Ferrari said...

Earl said:

God, remember when he was just a cult hero with a fanbase of one?


Yeah, I remember that too. In a strange way it was kind of cool to know that ahead of time. I mean a local writer here, Terry Jones, was moved to pimp Pahlsson in an article and even use the words "tough minutes". Damn.

You guys put up some great stuff on the Selke this year. I never had anything to add, so never commented, but huge props, guys. terrific stuff. Mirtle and the Sisu Hockey guy on that subject too.

I still think Sakic should've gotten it (crazy icetime against Iggy, Demitra, Sedins (and Gabby and Smyth when they were on the roster) intradivisionally ... and vs the top D pairs too). That fucker just makes such a difference, and I swear he's getting better.

The team you cheer for is full of players that I loathe, and Brian Burke is a pompous jackass, albeit an interesting one. I won't blame you entirely for that though.

mike w said...

Does anyone looking at that lineup think we're a playoff team?

Pleasure Motors said...

I think it's a lineup, as has been mentioned several times, that has to employ a shutdown line (one assumes that's Moreau-Stoll-Pisani) against the other teams top lines, then hope we can eat them up in soft minutes and the PP.

Shit, looking this over, I wouldn't be terribly adverse to doing two shutdown lines and two sheltered, easy-minute lines. Put Horcoff in between Torres and Pouliot and they'll probably keep you even, then bring up every kid whose ever been good at putting the puck in the net and let them be a fourth line that only plays PP and the easiest of easy minutes.

Something like:

Penner-Schremp/Cogliano-Hemsky
Torres-Horcoff-Pouliot
Moreau-Stoll-Pisani
Sanderson-Schremp/Cogliano-Nilsson
Reasoner, Thoresen

Any way you arrange it, though, we're going to need some big years from some young guys to look anything like a playoff team. Better to make them swim, though, than bring in stop-gaps and shoot for eighth.

Pleasure Motors said...

Oh yeah, that's all entirely dependent on Dustin Penner playing like a first-line left wing. WEEEEEE!

James L. said...

I'd hate the fuck out of him if he were in another sweater

For a second there, I thought you said you'd hate fuck Perry...

Anyway, my prediction of 2007-08? Sanderson will outscore Penner.

mc79hockey said...

All of you whining about the negativity of the Oilogosphere this summer - I would suspect that there's nothing stopping you from developing your own blog where everything is always awesome in Edmonton and then just sitting back and letting the view be that much more rosy.

deveel's advocate said...

Hey, I wasn't whining, just making an observation based on the data.

I like the blogs in our little corner of the hockey universe, but damn if I don't need a tab of soma after a foray.

I just don't happen to think the situation is as dire as it's made out to be. Last year we were riding high on fumes, this year everyone's looking up at the sky to check for cracks.

Pleasure Motors said...

Last year we were riding high on fumes

I can't entirely speak to the other blogs, but when has anyone on this blog ever ridden high on anything in regards to the Oilers?

Speaking just for myself, I was the one looking for stormclouds when we made the Stanley Cup Finals ("Hey look, that one's shaped like Andrew Ladd"). Second-guessing, paranoia and pessimism are all I know as a hockey fan. I don't understand how people who think their teams are going to turn out okay have any fun watching this stupid sport at all.

deveel's advocate said...

ha ha

Okay, I concede the point.

I guess I'll just have to hang with my kids if I want to get back to the fun of it all. Stupid kids, so full of dreams.

rickibear said...

I was allways of the belief that blogging developed out of the need for people to provide a voice to perspectives that are not in tune with the mass media or at least to questioning it.

I usually take a half full cup perspective but do realize that the percieved negativety of the oilers blogosphere is just a counter point to the oilers happy happy joy joy media that had traditionaly been stuffed down our throuts.

Just as you realize the flames happy blogs are a counter point to thier 40 years of mizery.

I invite this kind of sites in my life because it invigorates thought
and causes one to think on a diffrent level. Even though I may disagree with everything said..


Negative yes maybe. Hallaluha

ChrissyT said...

Well I only made it to the 12th post, but it felt like the twilight zone. Oilers fans moaning about spending 4 million and change on Penner, and mclea defending the move.

Weird, anyways back on topic. Great move. Fan-fuckin-tastic move. Sure we could have had Kariya or Smyth at 6M+ per season, or maybe Tkachuk or Guerin at 4M+.

But no. We got stuck with 25 year old Dustin Penner, who apparently didn't hit puberty till he was like 20.

He's no Ryan Smyth, but lets wait until at least the 20th game to write the kid off.

After all, Ryan Smyth was no defensive demon when he first came into the league.

I'm truly excited to see a 6'4, 235 pound power forward playing with guys like Horcoff and Hemsky.

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Moreau-Stoll-Pisani
Torres-Nilsson-Pouliot
Sanderson-Thoresen-Stortini
-Reasoner, JFJ, or Brodziak

Besides, the top 8 in the West in 06/07 did nothing significant to improve while teams like Colorado and Edmonton definately improved from what they ended the season with. The Kings, Blues, and Hawks were certainly no slouches either.

Think the Preds will finish 2nd in their division? Me neither, and we all know that 3rd in that division doesn't get you a playoff spot.

The Flames, Wild, and Nucks haven't improved, whereas the Oilers and Avs have. I'd still give the edge in the NW division to the Nucks, by virtue of having Bobbi Lou in net. But even then they haven't done anything to significantly improve their team.

Rock Deputy said...

...blogging developed out of the need for people to provide a voice to perspectives that are not in tune with the mass media...

Sports journalists say what we all wish to be true. Bloggers say what we all fear to be true.

I do, however, believe there to be more honestly coming from the bloggers. They have no editors, sponsors or paying public to answer to. They also have no motivation (aside from personal yearning) to put a positive spin on things.

MetroGnome said...

Just as you realize the flames happy blogs are a counter point to thier 40 years of misery.

The Flames blogs AND media are currently "happy" thanks to the fact that the team looks to be in good shape.

Course, if you want to see some "unhappy Flames blogging" check my April archives.

Anonymous said...

Sick off all the b!tching and moaning?? This is another interesting way of looking at it ...

Pay for future performance not past performance ... check out the stats on this page:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=8830

We all need to calm down and see how this plays out before jumping down Lowe's throat.

Kirsten said...

I've heard a lot of Flames fans bitching about their new coach and how fucked they think they are...

JonnyPneumonic said...

I LOVE it. Oilers waste a TONNE of precious cap space on a proven mediocrity. Their D is still porous and questionable. Their supply of forwards is hardly deep. Their frontline goaltending is weak (granted, they picked up a good backup). And their PP coaching is still the worst in the league.

Meanwhile, the Flames are rolling out a rock-solid D, three sexy lines of offense, the best goaltending in the league, and a coaching staff to die for.

I think it's clear which team is poised to not only make the playoffs, but TAKE the playoffs.

the sieve said...

@ Rod, re: Parise:

I get what you're saying about Lowe having to overpay in order to sign anyone.

But you Edmontonians seem to think it's due to the city's perceived shortcomings that Lowe can't attract players. He said so himself in that bizarre interview he gave a while ago. ("Hmm...people don't want to come here, so it must be because their wives think the city sucks." Well, dude, how about that your team's a trainwreck?)

Teams in shitholes like Detroit and New Jersey have no problems attracting or keeping talent. Why is that?

I think it's because they're proven winners, and who doesn't like to work for a winner?

As for Penner, time will tell. I can see why anyone would want him on their team, but I still think it's a mighty big gamble to throw that much money at an unproven player.

Also, Pitkanen, Souray and Garon were good pickups. I agree you Oilers fans have reason for cautious optimism. But I imagine anything looks better than last season.

Chris! said...

"and a coaching staff to die for."

Yeah, that's KEENUN alright.

Anonymous said...

"I LOVE it. Oilers waste a TONNE of precious cap space on a proven mediocrity"

This from a fan of the team the just dropped $4M on Adrian Aucoin's Amazing Exploding Groin?

mike w said...

I think it's clear which team is poised to not only make the playoffs, but TAKE the playoffs.

Why is this person talking like a human radio promo?

Chris! said...

Where are the Flames going to take the playoffs, exactly?

I hope it's the zoo.

Peter Puck said...

My nightmare scenario is:

Souray ends up being villified as MAB II and ends up costing us points at even strength.

Penner dissapears from the scoring charts as soon as he starts playing against tough competition.

Oilers general lack of offensive scoring results in the team scoring even fewer goals then they did last yeal, albeit while allowing fewer goals against as well.

Come the trade deadline with the team near the bottom of the league Lowe trades Rollie to the Av's for more "futures".

This allows the Ave's to fight it out with the Ducks for the Cup and Smitty ends up getting Sontaley's Mug handed to him by Lowe repeating last years Pronger gift.

Then to top it off the Ducks use our #1 pick to draft the next Sakic...

Rod said...

That's a nightmare all right. I don't see it happening though. Avs and Ducks can't exactly fight for the Cup. Phew. :-)

Rod said...

From yet another angle, Vancouver extended Bieksa a few weeks ago. Yearly salary when it kicks in: 4.25, 3.5, 3.5 (ave. of 3.75). Granted, they get the upcoming season at only 0.55.

Point is, that's one heck of a raise. For a kid with not much more of an NHL track record than Penner. Why was the Bieksa extension considered benign? I don't recall so much as a ripple of negative reaction. Was it simply lost amongst the "frenzy"? Or is the Penner deal not as crazy as some are making out?*

*Reference point: hysterical reporter that was alarmed enough during yesterday's Burke press conference to call on the commish to block the Penner deal

Vic Ferrari said...

Where did Bieksa guy come from, anyways. Sweet Christ.

He looks like a million dollars when he plays, the counting numbers are good, the underlying numbers are good, and then you realize that only Jarome (Ninekindsagood) Iginla played more against Sakic than this fucker.

Damn!

Him and Beauchemin, just out-of-nowhere stuff is that. Granted excellent defensemen have been coming out of the woodwork since Jesus played LW in the old Jerusalem League. Still, that's the kind of score the Oilers need now. Especially on D at the minute, which looks like a gong show (there just isn't enough "Imaginary Charlie Huddy Defenseman Balm" to go around folks. Just isn't.

mike w said...

Point is, that's one heck of a raise. For a kid with not much more of an NHL track record than Penner.

Offensive defencemen are more valuable than second line wingers. Plus, it's for three years, for less money and it didn't cost the Canucks three valuable 2008 draft picks.

Don't get me wrong, I hope this deal pans out. I just doubt that it will.

Rod said...

@Vic:
Surprise, surprise, you couldn't respond without making me out to be an idiot. Did you miss the fact I didn't question the Bieksa deal itself? I was looking for some insight on the difference in reaction. Read next time before engaging auto-smack down mode. Funny part is that in slamming me for bringing up something out of nowhere, you dredge up Beauchemin...out of nowhere. Same old Vic.

@Mike:
Thanks for continuing the conversation.

True enough that offensive defensemen are valuable. Guess we'll find out over the next couple years if Penner is a 1st or 2nd liner.

Almost by definition, doesn't an RFA offer sheet have to be an overpay? Otherwise the prior team easily matches.

With that in mind, does it really matter that much if Penner is an overpay this year? Where else was Penner's money going to go this season? The money aspect of Penner's deal only matters the minute the Oil can't "afford" someone.

Which brings to mind another angle... Anyone that despises the EIG should be thrilled with this deal. They have more or less backed themselves into a corner. The minute the EIG claim a player is beyond their reach now, momentum for an ownership change skyrockets.

As for the picks, it's really one valuable pick, and two shots in the dark. Surely the questions around Penner's potential are smaller than questions around a 2nd and 3rd rounder. What remains to be seen what slot that 1st rounder falls into...

Vic Ferrari said...

I don't know what I've done to make myself a target, Rod, but I don't like being bullied and intimidated. You're reminding me of that guy from the the Bible right now. Not Jesus, one of the other guys. In any case it's just not nice.

Chris! said...

Welcome to the world of internet conversation, Vic.

JonnyPneumonic said...

One thing's for sure: the Oil fan base is bitterly divided on Lowe's recent acquisitions, while there is a distinct overall bullish atmosphere among the Flamogosphere and the Calgary (and, indeed, global) Flames fan base. This positive energy will only snowball as the Flames win 90% of their first 20 games while the Oilers win 40%. (You heard it here first.)

I've been a long time Flame-fan, and it's been a long time since I've been this excited by this team and the leadership behind the bench.

I feel for the Oilers, I really do, but they have a pretty questionable future in the NHL.

Chris! said...

So... did you just come here to brag, then? That's kind of lame.

It always amazes how much time Flames fans spend commenting on Oilers blogs, and how little they spend frequenting their own.

McLea said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Black Dog said...

uh rod - I think Vic's comment was along the lines of where did Bieksa come from as in nobody heard of him until last season. Pretty close to Penner actually in that regard. Penner had his coming out party in the playoffs the year before but he certainly wasn't highly touted.

I can't speak for Vic but I think he was just commenting on the fact that Bieksa is a terrific player with very little pedigree.

Whatever - I would like the Penner deal a lot more if they hadn't have given big money to Souray or if they had given that same money to Smyth. The problem is they have two gambles going on here.

Penner may be a disaster but I don't think so. I think it works out - just the optimist coming back I guess. The fact that Lowe has had a year where everything went wrong has pretty well everyone pointing out every single move as terrible. We'll see how it pans out.

Rod said...

Upon further review...

Ah, my bad. Sorry Vic. Completely and utterly misread your post. One of these days I'll learn.

Thanks for helping out Black Dog.

Rod said...

@ johnnysomethingorother:

>>...there is a distinct overall bullish atmosphere among the Flamogosphere and the Calgary (and, indeed, global) Flames fan base. This positive energy will only snowball as the Flames win...<<

Seriously? Positive energy from the "Flamogosphere" and Calgary will generate wins on the ice? Wow. That's a special set of standings printed in Calgary.

>>I feel for the Oilers, I really do, but they have a pretty questionable future in the NHL.<<

Seriously? Questionable future? Yeah, somebody with a couple billion that wants to buy the team and help build two arenas in Edmonton sure sounds like a questionable future to me. How will they ever stay in the NHL?

Stop mixing prescriptions johnnyp...make sure it has your name on next time. Then again, ascribing these delusions to pill mixups might be a tad generous. You claim to be a Lames fans after all. Carry on then. Just hand over your keys off though.

LittleFury said...

the Calgary (and, indeed, global) Flames fan base

See, now you're just making shit up.

voxel said...

Penner's work ethic and continually improving counting numbers overrides all the fears I've had about him being a total bust.

But yes, it was a very expensive, friend-destroying, beer drinking acquisition process...