Comments on Covered in Oil: I'm a stat man

Well and good, but I bet yours doesn't impress the...

2008-09-10T18:19:00.000-06:00

Well and good, but I bet yours doesn't impress the ladies.

How did you know? :(

//the "true" measurement system will remain the go...

2008-09-10T17:18:00.000-06:00

//the "true" measurement system will remain the goals themselves. Everything else is a means to that end.//

I'm not trying to be obtuse here, I just think a statement like that misses the point of further analysis, which is what I was trying to point out.

DMFB: Not at all. I have made several comments above which are strongly in favour of further and deeper analysis. I'm

I got the white one with the upgrades.Well and goo...

2008-09-10T15:33:00.000-06:00

I got the white one with the upgrades.

Well and good, but I bet yours doesn't impress the ladies.

Regular, but it's the black one, for style points....

2008-09-10T14:19:00.000-06:00

Regular, but it's the black one, for style points.

When I bought mine, the black one was basically $80 for the upgrade package and $120 for the paint job. I got the white one with the upgrades.

I'll second that.And request some OMC.

2008-09-10T13:51:00.000-06:00

I'll second that.

And request some OMC.

Man, do we need the season to start soon...

2008-09-10T13:00:00.000-06:00

Man, do we need the season to start soon...

Understanding the game is the end, not winning it....

2008-09-10T12:42:00.000-06:00

Understanding the game is the end, not winning it.

Is it still okay to watch hockey because you enjoy it on its aesthetic merits or because there's nothing else to do when its winter in Edmonton? Stats, shmats.

the "true" measurement system will remain the goal...

2008-09-10T11:55:00.000-06:00

the "true" measurement system will remain the goals themselves. Everything else is a means to that end.

I'm not trying to be obtuse here, I just think a statement like that misses the point of further analysis, which is what I was trying to point out. It seems uncomfortably close to me to saying something like, 'You guys have fun playing in the sandbox, but at the end of the day,

I see that, Dennis. I'm just asking if you think ...

2008-09-10T10:32:00.000-06:00

I see that, Dennis. I'm just asking if you think pointing the finger at one particular player for bollocksing the play, in the course of chance-tracking, would be of further analytical value. It seems to go part and parcel with the creation of the scoring chance of the first place, and it's really the sort of thing you tend to do anyway when describing the plays in question, from what I

___Given what you said this morning -- "there are ...

2008-09-10T09:44:00.000-06:00

___Given what you said this morning -- "there are lots of 'errors' made in a game and sometimes the goalie bails you out and sometimes they don't" -- if it were practical, would you be more amenable to the concept of errors resulting in scoring chances against, rather than just goals?____

D2K: This is what I'm trying to get at. Goals are the ultimate of course but I want to see who's on

I skim a few 'sphere blogs, watch as many games as...

2008-09-09T22:55:00.000-06:00

I skim a few 'sphere blogs, watch as many games as I can and consider myself an inquisitive sort of person. But whenever I load up Behind The Net, thinking today might be the day I delve in, I'm reminded of how ignorant I am in western history (or some such pail of knowledge), become distracted and agitated, and immediately switch activities. Same when I read blog comments that are longer than

I should also add that "almost cheating" should be...

2008-09-09T21:01:00.000-06:00

I should also add that "almost cheating" should be "always cheating" and that I started this argument, not Staples, right here: http://www.stillnoname.com/posts/show/574

I'm going to start out by agreeing with bruce. I ...

2008-09-09T20:58:00.000-06:00

I'm going to start out by agreeing with bruce. I understand that Dennis and Vic might just skip my post because I said that, but hey, we were talking about not ignoring things that might enrich your view of the game, right?

Let's be anecdotal for a moment. I remember one game the Oilers ('86 or so) were playing the Bruins. The Bruins got out of the first period up 10-3 (or so) in

that of course should be defensive zone turnovers....

2008-09-09T20:43:00.000-06:00

that of course should be defensive zone turnovers...

-- was the scoring opportunity created off a turno...

2008-09-09T20:17:00.000-06:00

-- was the scoring opportunity created off a turnover or through possession?

As a nut-job goalie, I'd be willing to bet that at even strength, the scoring ops created off turnovers have a higher completion percentage and vice versa when on the PP...which of course would fly in the face of possession driving results at EV. I'd think that offensive zone turnovers have as high a

stat guys are latte-drinking metrosexuals, crunchi...

2008-09-09T19:44:00.000-06:00

stat guys are latte-drinking metrosexuals, crunching numbers on their MacBooks (yeah, I have one: want to fight about it?)

So do I. Regular or Pro?

And if you've ever listened to sports talk radio, you know that lots of folks like to talk about momentum changing goals, big saves at big times, etc., and they see some things in hockey games that I'm pretty sure never

I think what we're after is figuring out what the ...

2008-09-09T19:25:00.000-06:00
I think what we're after is figuring out what the path to goals is.

No duh. It's interesting, and "important" as any of this stuff goes. Any statistical light that can be shone on that process will provide insights into the game itself.

I'm just saying that no matter how sophisticated we become in finding relationships between flow of play and goals, errors and goals,

The path to wins is paved with goals.I think what ...

2008-09-09T17:54:00.000-06:00
The path to wins is paved with goals.

I think what we're after is figuring out what the path to goals is.

Bruce: if it's alright with you, I'll just keep on...

2008-09-09T17:21:00.000-06:00
Bruce: if it's alright with you, I'll just keep on believing what the Edm media tells me!

Vic: Bruce has hitched his wagon to Staples.Dennis...

2008-09-09T16:01:00.000-06:00
Vic: Bruce has hitched his wagon to Staples.

Dennis: I have hitched my wagon to considering new ways to measure, consider and interpret the game. Like it or not, that includes both you and Staples and a great many others who contribute to a greater or lesser degree. Rather than "hitch my wagon" to any one individual, I have freefallen within the Oilogosphere as a whole.

Scoring chances is a means to an end, not the end ...

2008-09-09T15:44:00.000-06:00
Scoring chances is a means to an end, not the end in itself.

Yes of course, Vic. They're just another (imperfect) measurement system. The only measurement system that matters is the "official" one which is measured along the following hierarchy:

Goals
Individual game wins
Playoff qualification
Playoff series wins
Stanley Cup wins

... and all

Vic: Bruce has hitched his wagon to Staples.And I ...

2008-09-09T15:04:00.000-06:00
Vic: Bruce has hitched his wagon to Staples.

And I can defintely do the clock thing as long as it's visible when I'm fastforwarding and rewinding.

Bruce:Scoring chances is a means to an end, not th...

2008-09-09T14:00:00.000-06:00
Bruce:

Scoring chances is a means to an end, not the end in itself. If we do this we'll see what it meshes with.

Errors (whatever the hell they even are, I've never been a Staples reader) and scoring chances are both subjective, leading some people to think that they somehow equate.

In fact if you honestly track scoring chances for a game, and most people who have

You need scoring chances and GFON and GAON bathed ...

2008-09-09T13:11:00.000-06:00
You need scoring chances and GFON and GAON bathed in the light of matchups and that's something I might be able to attempt this winter if something pans out for me that allows me such leisure time.

Sounds promising Dennis. Of course you can already get GF/GA ON from the summaries, though they are bathed in the exact same light as Errors; a goal has to be scored for those match-ups

conversely, then, I'd say stat guys always test th...

2008-09-09T13:03:00.000-06:00
conversely, then, I'd say stat guys always test their own observations with the numbers.

That's about where I land. I also find stats useful to help evaluate guys I can't watch a lot. I love hockey and obsess over it, but even I can't be watching every single game every night.

In addition, the eyes can lie...no matter how thoroughly "experienced" a veiwer is. By way of